6. CONCLUSIONS

6.1 ASSESSMENT

6.1.1 Imprecision of Mapping Auxiliary Data Mapping auxiliary data has the advantage that it can use and modify concepts and indicators developed for vulnerability and food security, build on their efforts in data compilation, and cover a wide geographic area at relative low costs. Mapping auxiliary data has the disadvantage that it generally provides a resolution too coarse for understanding causes and effects of poverty, and the mapped indicator may not necessarily measure poverty, especially when a more narrow economic definition of poverty is needed. Mapping auxiliary data could be a feasible approach for a global poverty map that tries to raise awareness about the spatial distribution of poverty. Such a map could start with the descriptive study on the location of the poor by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (Jazairy et al., 1992) and then combine digital maps with expert opinion, similar to the approach that produced the maps for the Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (Oldeman, 1991). 6.1.2 Poor Data Quality and Few Worked Examples for Measuring Access A major constraint on measuring access to markets and services is data quality. Very few GIS databases in developing countries are developed with modeling applications in mind. As a result, considerable effort is required to update and correct poorly structured databases. Sophisticated algorithms have been developed to calculate accessibility but because of a lack of readily available and vertically integrated GIS databases in many developing countries, there are few examples where access measures have been applied at a scale and with a level of accuracy that makes them useful in an operational setting. 6.1.3 Limited Data Availability of Geo-Referenced Survey Data Very few developing countries routinely collect data that can be used to reliably map poverty. The only multi-national effort to map survey data in Africa is USAID's WASAP. As a result of this project, all DHS are now being geo-referenced using GPS at a cost of $10 per cluster (including equipment purchase and training). Geo-referencing the clusters post-survey with the help of maps or gazetteers is more expensive. A related problem is the lack of a standard set of village names that allow survey data to be automatically joined to geo-referenced census data. The need to develop such "core" or "foundation" databases is a recurrent theme and one that the CGIAR is perhaps uniquely positioned to address, and benefit from. However, with a few notable exceptions (e.g., Corbett et al., 1996), the CGIAR has not produced publicly available, internationally-comparable GIS databases useful for poverty mapping. 6.1.4 Mapping Modeled Results - High Costs and Institutional Barriers The approach described for Burkina Faso requires intensive investments in digital data, vertical data integration, and modeling, which will be very expensive and difficult to implement for all developing countries. Such GIS work can be very time consuming with many potential setbacks during the location and identification of existing data sets, error checking and correction of data, and final integration of the assembled information which should permit spatial analyses, for example network analysis. In Burkina Faso, the GIS team encountered problems with data documentation, delays in obtaining some of the requested data sets, and unavailability of some data at disaggregated level. The case study for Ecuador benefited from generous collaboration between national and international organizations and access to census data at the household level. The Burkina Faso example required collaboration and data from various government agencies. Poverty assessments and poverty maps with high spatial resolution have to overcome institutional rivalries and a natural reluctance of organizations to release data at disaggregated level. Reasons include legitimate concerns of data confidentiality, high access fees, and institutional inertia. High resolution poverty maps can become politically sensitive outputs, especially when they highlight the arbitrariness of previous decision making or become the basis for entitlements or social sector spending. Detailed modeling of poverty estimates at the village or community level is most appropriate for narrow geographic targeting and for studying and understanding the complex relationships between land use, environment, and poverty. It will require close collaboration with national organizations and demands institutional and technical capacity within collaborating organizations to carry out complex quantitative analyses and modeling. 6.1.5 Correlation versus Causation Knowing where the poor live provides no information about why they are poor. Studies have shown that causes of poverty may differ from factors leading to its spatial concentration. The concentration of the poor generally results from a combination of structural and individual factors. The degree to which geographic (structural) or individual factors are causing poverty has implications for developing CGIAR's strategy of agricultural research. If geographic factors play an important role, then geographic targeting of agricultural research to the poor in marginal areas can become a useful tool to address poverty issues. If individual characteristics explain most of the local poverty, and individuals are free to migrate, then the mobility of people and capital can limit the success of targeting marginal areas geographically.

6.2 NEXT STEPS

Implementing CGIAR's objective of poverty alleviation will require a critical examination of where and why poverty occurs. An international database of subnational poverty maps is not readily available and existing activities are incomplete geographically, too coarse to provide meaningful information, or measure concepts that are not of direct relevance to the objectives of the CGIAR centers. The question of how to build on these existing efforts, make additional investments, and develop a strategy for poverty mapping that benefits the CGIAR could be addressed in a workshop that brings together the CGIAR community, donor agencies, and other institutions interested in or working on poverty issues, both at the national and international level. At this workshop the following issues need to be resolved:

CGIAR's follow-up activities to such a workshop can then move into several directions:

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